DARIAN – evaluare & consultanţă

We are now facing one of the most critical moments of the financial crisis and the major decisions that are taken on a global level can make the difference between exiting the economic deadlock or continuing the decline. All these can have unpredictable and unwanted consequences.

The perspective in the context of globalization, from which only few emerging countries (mainly the BRICS Group) can sustain high growth rates will lead to a long term repositioning of the global economic spectrum, with unpredictable long term effects. Read more…

Financial Crisis english

We are standing at a crossroads, in a globalized world that hardly resists the sovereign debt crisis. The economic model of recent decades, causing endemic unemployment in developed economies and slavery in emerging countries, based on a strong competition for jobs between individuals, companies and states, welfare, profit or dominant political positions, which gives access to resources. Unfortunately this competition is very tough in many cases and does not show the same degree and the same rules in Romania and that’s because of bureaucratic mechanisms, also due to the large influence of the state upon the economy, having disastrous effects on living standards, but especially to motivate young people, middle class and entrepreneurs, the most dynamic segments of the Romanian society. Read more…

Uncategorized english

Last week an emergency ordinance that regulates the valuation as a profession was released, this is truly a milestone in the evolution of this profession in Romania. In nearly two decades of existence ANEVAR (Romanian Association of Valuation) played a determinant role in the birth of this important profession in a market economy architecture and starting from this year forth this profession will be organized, licensed and regulated by an independent body named Unevar (Romanian National Valuation Union) created and recognized by the Romanian Government. This decision is important because it ends the discussions about “who is an authorized valuer in Romania”. Read more…

Valuation english

Lots of people are asking now when will the residential sector make its come back. It’s hard to make an estimation of when it will happen, because of the world’s economical situation and our encreased dependence regarding it. This dependence is caused by inefficient economical policies and by the low amount of european founds atrracted in the economy. Read more…

Financial Crisis, Real Estate Market english

Although all industry (investors, financiers, developers) is looking forward towards the real estate market recovery later this year, it certainly will not happen in the next six months, although there are some positive signals about a positive economic change. Other positive aspects is that the downward trend has got weaker and thereby leads to a soft landing, to the lowest point. A decrease in under-performing loans wills also appear soon and it will represent a decisive signal of market recovery. Read more…

Financial Crisis, Real Estate Market english

We have recently made a summary of the Darian’s database to assess the evolution of property values during the recent years (2006-2010). With all the weaknesses that arise from the fact that we used “average values”, which are not appropriate in many of the real estate industry assessments, I believe, however, we have come to useful conclusions that will be presented below. Read more…

Real Estate Market english

After 2 years of sharp decrease of the Romanian economy, all the people involved  (from earthling to millionaire investor, from  the budget man to the politician), are looking forward to and put their confidence in these first  signs of economic revival.

Unfortunately, external developments provide grounds for concern and this, at least in terms of mentality (already on the edge) can attenuate the very fragile optimism. Read more…

Financial Crisis english

Although today we may be a little more optimistic about the evolution of the Romanian economy, if we exclude the dangers that can arise from the external market, which could send the world economy back in crisis, or at least temper its positive development, we must look with caution and discover what could be the solutions for a sustainable recovery of the Romanian real estate industry.

Financial Crisis, Real Estate Market english

The valuation consultancy company Darian has recently launched, for the third consecutive year, a detailed analysis of the national real estate market, for 27 major cities specifically, out of which 15 poles of development, and also estimated a real estate index.

I would like to make some remarks on the comments emerged after the event occurred. Darian is an independent company and a brand with over 20 years of work and experience in the Romanian economy, exclusively specialized in valuating all types of properties and having representation at a national level. This offers  us the advantage of not having any interest in the estimation of a certain level of property value, on the contrary: the synthesis we presented is basically the essence of our transactions database, which is the origin of valuation reports (usually 15-20,000 within 1 year), being just an opinion and not at all a suggestion for investments.

Our interest as consultants interested in ethics and progress of the real estate industry is to contribute to  its increased transparency, an important step for the growing up and attractiveness for the long-term investors, which would be an advantage for all participants. The effort and investment made in this product have no material benefits whatsoever,  for it is not being sold. The analysis is certainly a useful tool and is provided free of charge by our company to our partners, investors on the Romanian market, auditors, risk departments of banks and, not least, to the public, as people need independent sources of information to make safe decisions in investment, like buying a property.

In order to very clearly summarize the position Darian held during the press conference last week,  I will make the following statement: “While it is always difficult to predict, I think chances are that during 2011 the market should continue to decrease with a less stressed trend and it will stabilize itself at its lowest level, towards the end of the year. If there will be no unpleasant surprises, foreign or domestic, and the economic recovery will be felt during the second half of 2011, it is likely to witness an increase of the real estate market, starting with 2012. We should not expect dramatic increases in the near future though, similar to the pre-crisis period. These assessments should be nuanced considering the property type and also the geographic location. “

Dr. ec. Adrian Crivii, MAA, REV, FRICS

Real Estate Market english

This is a topic of major concern, especially since whenever we deal with a real estate transaction we also have to deal with the values imposed by notaries. I would like to specify from the very beginning that the values contained in this grid do not result from  assessment methods which are in accordance with international valuation standards used in Romania and which also represent the foundation of the valuation profession. The consequence is that empirical values of the notaries grid can be consistent with the real market values of properties only by pure chance, which may cause discomfort for people and budget, by paying a random fee.

Unfortunately ANEVAR was not consulted and will have to take a stand against this situation in order not to let it appear that the values in these grids can be considered a “surrogate” for the market value, as it is recognized by professionals.

Another side of the story with  possible unpleasant consequences is the fact that the Authority for Property Restitution (ANRP) intends to take into account these grids also, which, as I mentioned, are not consistent with internationally recognized procedures and standards. A consequence of this approach which is inconsistent with the standards could be the major shortcomings of our country in the event of any dispute regarding the amount of compensation at the European Court of Justice, given their controversial nature.

Given these limitations created by the notaries grid, I consider it is about time the mass appraisal, meaning the estimating of value for a large group of properties, quickly, efficiently and accurately, should be brought to the attention of professionals from ANEVAR.

This approach may be actual, especially taking into consideration the fact that, in Romania, it would be the right time for implementing the “ad valorem” taxation, which would be a true reform of real estate property taxation, with beneficial effects on the state budget.

Dr. ec. Adrian Crivii, MAA, REV, FRICS

Valuation english