The Economic Evolution Influence on Fortunes – part II
Unfortunately, even if Romania is an emergent country with a significant market and a good potential, the lack of infrastructure, the chaotic urbanism, the pollution, the low quality of life and last but not least the real-estate bubble that created the level of unsustainable values in the past years, will all contribute to a slow and long standing comeback of the real-estate market. The investments that will probably revive starting next year will gradually come back at the last years’ level but they will meet a market with another level of prices. Also, the expected profit will be lower with the exception of high-tech industries and will not come from speculative real-estate any more. Anyhow, real-estate will not be considered the “queen industry” any longer, even if it constitutes a considerable part of the states’ wealth. I believe that in the years to come the global economy and implicitly the Romanian one will have other bases, in which the attitude towards regenerating energy, bio-technologies and limited resources will form new challenges for investors and will determine new directions in business and therefore in rising the fortunes. The evolution of fortunes also depends on the economic capacity to absorb the European funds, funds that can represent an impulse for the revival from the crisis.
Businessmen that proved they have the necessary qualities and the chance to create and administer spectacular fortunes in this last decade will continue to prosper, even if the cumulative fortunes of the rich will not reach the 2007-2008 level, only in the medium term. One of the categories of individuals that we will continue to see in this top is the investors in agriculture, who I believe they will significantly raise their wealth, if they will take advantage of the conditions and they will benefit from a favourable agricultural policy.
The ones that will get rich further on, or they will consolidate their fortunes will be the ones who today have cash and who will know how to take advantage of the crisis and of the difficulties that other investors face. The acquisition of valuable assets from companies that have difficulties, at insignificant prices represents one of the significant sources of growth for some of the businessmen that are on the list.
The end of the crisis will find some businessmen with more wealth than the precedent year and some with no fortune at all. The last ones are particularly the ones that have a high leverage level, who invested borrowed money in projects and developments in incipient phases, thus paying for investing in a period close to the beginning of the crisis.
Dr. ec. Adrian Crivii, FRICS, MAA