DARIAN – evaluare & consultanţă

Now, as the first quarter of the year has passed and the crisis has begun to be visible in all the sectors of the economy, we can make a few observations.

The transactions decrease rapidly; those which are realized do not have the support from the financing entities – it is more and more obvious that the critical elements are not the lack of financing or the price, rather than the lack of investors accomplishing the actual conditions for crediting.

The apparently positive news from the banks and the timid attempts are but a palliative, with no real and visible effects. I still believe that the return to normal on the real estate market needs a few years interval and a positive evolution can only occur after passing through a “purgatory” which the longer is as the financers’ and investors’ “sins” are bigger. In all this business, the collateral victims are those in a stringent need to purchase a property.

Once with the deepening of the crisis, the decrease of the number of corporations or investors with a financial situation allowing them to attract credits, respectively the recession would accelerate the decrease of the GDP and the budget incomes.

I would develop an idea in connection with the governmental decision adopted in terms of fiscal policy. Even if there is a strong need to increase the budget incomes, in a free fall because of the crisis, the good sense arguments shall count first. If, the government cancelled the deductibility of the expenses related to the vehicles for companies using vehicles in their activity, in order to increase the budget incomes, a deep shortage of ideas is supposed, and I do not see how the budget would comply with the parameters imposed in the agreement with the IMF.

Measures such as the fixed tax, or the cancellation of the deductibility of the expenses with the company vehicles, show the precariousness of the measures adopted by the Government, and the lack of strategic vision regarding the needs of the Romanian economy. If these are the measures which shall get Romania out of the crisis, to re-launch the economy or the credits, we should say farewell and prepare for the worst.

I remember a phrase of an enlightened president from a super developed Asian country, which seems to confirm the realities of Romania: underdevelopment is not result of the lack of resources, rather than a defective management.

Dr. ec. Adrian Crivii, MAA, FRICS

Financial Crisis, Real Estate Market financial crisis, real estate

Acum când s-a sfârşit primul trimestru al anului şi criza începe să se manifeste în toate sectoarele economiei putem face câteva observaţii.

Tranzacţiile scad vertiginos; cele care se fac sunt fără suport din partea finanţatorilor – e tot mai evident că nu atât lipsa sau preţul finanţării sunt elementele critice, cât lipsa investitorilor care îndeplinesc actualele condiţii de creditare.

Veştile aparent pozitive din partea băncilor şi încercările timide sunt doar un paleativ fără efecte reale şi vizibile. Cred în continuare că revenirea la normal pe piaţa imobiliară presupune un interval de ordinul anilor şi o evoluţie pozitivă nu poate să apară fără trecerea printr-un “purgatoriu” cu atât mai lung cu cât “păcatele” finanţatorilor şi investitorilor sunt mai mari. În toată această afacere, victimele colaterale sunt cei care au o necesitate stringentă de achiziţie a unui imobil.

Odată cu adâncirea crizei, diminuarea numărului de corporaţii sau investitori cu o situaţie financiară ce le permite să atragă credite respectiv recesiunea va accentua scăderea PIB şi a încasărilor bugetare.

Îmi permit să dezvolt o idee în legătură cu deciziile guvernamentale luate cu privire la fiscalitate. Chiar dacă există în prezent necesitatea de a creşte încasările bugetare, aflate în cădere liberă datorită crizei, ar trebui să primeze argumentele de bun simţ. Dacă pentru firmele care utilizează în activitate maşini se interzice deductibilitatea cheltuielilor cu acestea în scopul creşterii veniturilor bugetare, atunci executivul este într-o criză profundă de idei şi nu văd cum se poate înscrie bugetul în parametrii impuşi de acordul cu FMI.

Măsuri ca adoptarea impozitului forfetar sau anularea deductibilităţii cheltuielilor cu maşinile de firmă arată precaritatea deciziilor pe care le iau guvernanţii şi lipsa de viziune strategică cu privire la necesităţile economiei româneşti. Dacă acestea sunt măsurile care vor trebui să scoată România din criză, să relanseze economia sau creditarea, trebuie să ne luăm adio şi să ne pregătim de ce este mai rău.

Îmi amintesc o frază a unui preşedinte luminat dintr-o ţară asiatică superdezvoltată, care pare să confirme realităţile din România: subdezvoltarea nu provine din lipsa de resurse cât dintr-un management defectuos.

Dr. ec. Adrian Crivii, MAA, FRICS

Criza financiară, Piaţa imobiliară criza financiară, industria imobiliară

If in the third quarter of 2008, the GDP growth rate was 9% compared to 2007, and in the fourth quarter of 3%, the trend will be most likely negative in the first quarter of 2009. I reckon that the decreasing trend of GDP in the last two quarters shall be of 10-12 percents, which shows that the Romanian economy has constrainedly landed, in two quarters, from an unsustainable high level to an intolerably lowered level.

I think that, unfortunately, we shall face a significant decrease in the second quarter of 2009, too. Romania will enter a deep crisis, whose effects we all feel in the coming months. The economic situation worsening and falling demand cause less companies to have financial situations allowing them access funding, without mentioning the high cost of it.

After the agreement with the IMF, which will help to improve the financial situation, respectively increasing confidence and reducing the costs associated to funding, and after balancing the budget with EU funds, there will be created, in the last period of this year, the possibility of halting the increased decline we are witnessing today.

In 2010, within an optimistic scenario, we shall assist to the re-launch of the Romanian economy, and this taking into consideration the developments in terms of a favourable global economy.

A good chance for a quick revival of the economy is attracting EU funds. It depends exclusively on the competence of the authorities and the transparency of the process, providing the potential to boost strategic areas and economy, in general.

In this period of economic and financial difficulties, to attract these funds and those of other financial organizations (World Bank, EBRD, EIB) may represent two major advantages:
- there are cheaper sources that can boost big infrastructure projects and major branches of the economy;
- these create jobs, that is sources of budgetary income.

If the pronounced decrease in GDP was due mainly to decrease in real-estate and the retail, Romania’s exit the crisis may take place only with the reopening of investments (both public and private) in the real economy, not in consumption.

There shall be supported by funding and fiscal policies the companies that surpassing the crisis, will contribute directly to improving the employment situation, which is of the budgetary employees and the pensioners.

Dr. ec. Adrian Crivii, MAA, FRICS

Financial Crisis, Real Estate Market banks, financial crisis, funding, real estate, real estate industry